Toluu

WSJ.com: Political Perceptions

Political Perceptions is WSJ.com's center for political analysis

Political Wisdom: Obama’s Two HatsToday

Here’s a summary of the smartest new political analysis on the Web:
by Sara Murray

ABC News’ Rick Klein looks at the two hats President-elect Barack Obama will be wearing today. The first is his post-partisan, incoming-president hat for his economic speech at 11 a.m. The second is the “political president-elect” who will name Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine as the new DNC chairman. “It’s how President-elect Barack Obama balances these two roles — the post-partisan one he claimed on Election Day, and the partisan one that still determines how things actually get done in Washington — that will define the contours of his potential success. As for the speech — we know he knows how to give these. But this isn’t precisely like the ones he’s given before, or like those the predecessors he met with Wednesday were inclined to give when they had the chance. Dust off the FDR references: Obama is making the case that government is the answer after all. That means re-setting a generation of convention wisdom. That means overcoming deep public skepticism over whether a bigger government with more regulation is likely to be a force for good. That means jumping up and down on a drawer full of political hot buttons. And that means preparing the public for a push that will be expensive, unpopular, time-consuming — and that ultimately may not even work.”

Meantime

Political Wisdom: What to do With Roland Burris?Yesterday

Here’s a summary of the smartest new political analysis on the Web:
by Sara Murray and Gerald F. Seib

Spectacular political madness continues today — Norm Coleman and Al Franken are still fighting to the death. President-elect Barack Obama’s holding (yet another) press conference. Republicans are still scrambling to get their act together. But best of all, Roland Burris might be seated in the Senate — and then again, he might not. “Democratic aides are disputing reports that there is a deal to seat Roland Burris, even as Burris sits behind closed doors negotiating with Majority Leader Harry Reid and Majority Whip Dick Durbin,” writes Politico’s Manu Raju. “If there is an eventual deal, it would be an extraordinary turnabout by Senate Democrats. But the momentum has been growing toward a deal on Burris, as more Democrats were becoming uncomfortable with the situation and Burris seemed to have serious political and legal momentum.”

Salon.com’s Alex Koppelman breaks it down more bluntly, saying “First impression, though, is that this news just reinforces the impression that the Democratic leadership handled this really, really badly. If they were going to let him in as of Wednesday, why not seat him Tuesday? Why allow the embarrassing spectacle of Burris walking out in the rain after bein

Why Some States Are in Better Fiscal ShapeJanuary 6

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, is a former White House correspondent with two decades of experience covering Washington government and politics. Click here for Mr. Brown’s full bio.

State capitals around the country -– where laws or constitutions generally require balanced budgets — are awash in red ink, and lawmakers are facing politically unpalatable spending cuts and tax increases.

While the depth of the recession is being felt from Albany to Austin, there is a pattern in how the various states got into this budget mess, and why some are in much better shape than others.

Here’s a hint: It has to do primarily with how lavish the folks who spend your state tax dollars were during the good times.

At least 44 states were facing shortfalls midway through the fiscal 2009, according to a Center on Budget and Policy Priorities study released last month. The worsening economy makes it likely that the list will grow and deficits will widen.

The most tax-averse states over the years are in the best shape in these times of foreclosures, layoffs, bankruptcies and negative economic growth. That’s because their lower taxes produced less tax revenue for

Political Wisdom: Is it Sen. Al Franken—Or Not?January 6

Here’s a summary of the smartest new political analysis on the Web:
by Gerald F. Seib and Sara Murray

Will it be Sen. Al Franken now—or not? “Minnesota’s canvassing board is set to certify comedian Al Franken as the winner of the Senate race by 225 votes, or less than one-one thousandth of a percent,” notes Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic, but Republican incumbent Norm Coleman seems certain to contest that outcome. “Does Coleman have a case, or is he simply spitting out sour milk?” asks Ambinder. “The answer, as is almost always the case in election disputes, is that one’s perspective fixes the law more than the law fixes one’s perspective. Casting a ballot and having it counted accurately seems to be simple, but humans have found ways to inject Heisenberg-scale uncertainties into the process. Coleman’s contest will rest on the claim that the state canvassing board violated election law when it came to precincts where duplicated ballots — those given to voters whose original ballots were damaged — were included in the tally along with the original, damaged ballots. That seems suspect, right? But the board’s response is that they did their best not to include duplicates in the tally.” And even if it isn’t clear duplicates were thrown out, “the remedy would be… what, exactly? Discarding ballots that are unmarked duplicates woul

Gaza Crisis Could Create OpeningsJanuary 6

Gerald F. Seib, executive Washington editor of The Wall Street Journal, has been involved in covering every presidential election since 1980 and writes the weekly Capital Journal column for the Journal. Click here for Mr. Seib’s full bio.

It’s taken as an article of faith in the Middle East that every crisis also creates an opening for diplomacy.

If that’s the case, President-elect Barack Obama, watching the unfolding battle between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, has to be asking himself: What can I possibly do to make something good come of all this?

In the short run, the answer is probably: Not much.

In the long run, the Israeli push into Gaza just might open some doors for the new administration — if Hamas is widely seen as having been set back on its heels, if the new American administration is more successful than its predecessor at building up moderate Palestinians, and if Egypt decides to lend a helping hand.

Those are all very big ifs, of course. But such thin strands often are all that diplomats have to grasp at in the Middle East.

Israeli officials insist the attack on Hamas was undertaken not because they hope it will somehow reshape the region’s landscape, but for a much simpler reas