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The Future of Information Work

Being a futurist means never being wrong today


So Long Millennials - Not So FastNovember 17

Writing for Encarta Don Asher says So Long Millennials, Hello Moat People. Basic conclusion, the culture of service is done. Harsh reality has hit. Well, the Millennials have always, as is pointed out in the article, lived in harsh reality, despite their parent's over-willingness to reward them.

As I have said with trends before, a few data points doesn't make a trend. A disruption can delay or derail a trend, even change it. But it doesn't mean the ingrained belief system of the Millennials has been overturned in a few weeks, months or a year or two of economic strife. When the up tick happens we will all come out changed, but changed from where we started, not fundamentally different. I still volunteer in the community decades after attending college. They will too, and many still are, because in a world where material reward is suddenly in doubt, helping other people can make you feel better - and that same world creates more opportunities for helping as well.

Get Money Working Again - It's the Housing Market StupidNovember 16

Everybody has an opinion on the financial crisis, and I have spouted off before as well. But now is the time to do something meaningful. Of all of the solutions I have heard the ones that make sense focus on the root cause of this particular meltdown: housing.

First, revamp the bankruptcy code and let people stay in their homes. I don't mean give principle away but negotiate longer terms, lower interest. The worst thing for a failing bank to do right now is hold a home that is a cost rather than income. It may be an asset but it won't turn fast so having some money coming in is better than no money. Logic it seems defies the financial community, as well as Treasury these days (perhaps all days).

Second, we need to create incentives for banks to renegotiate without a bankruptcy. Same reasoning as above, but much more of an FDIC move in rule making than a new legislative action like item one.

What are your thoughts?

The Work of the Automotive Industry - ReinventionNovember 13

The automotive industry is in need of a bailout, but the bailout needs to come in the form a fundamental reinvention, not government financial assistance.

The relationship with labor, multiple brands with overlapping promises and little differentiation, and a geographic-centric view of manufacturing (my apologies to Detroit, a state which needs to create new economic models rather than foster a hope for the return of the Motor City).

The automobile market has changed dramatically and for good, and many signs existed - when the money was available for multiple bets the bets were often not laid down.

We all lived through the dot-com failures. The companies that survived and thrived did so through perseverance and dedicated experimentation that led to new innovations, and in many cases it came from a deep understanding of customers and markets, which helped select among innovations to create strategic focus.

It is my hope that President-Elect Obama not hire a Car Czar. Czar's didn't work so well in Russia and they didn't work for the war on drugs. What we need is an industry that is willing to learn from its mistakes, rationally and robustly consider its options (including market-sized offerings people will buy) and look for private investment to move it forward. If we bailout old models we run the real risk of reinforcing bad practice, and therefore simply pushing off the inevitable. The financial market will never look the same, although it is ge

Custom List: Speaking EngagementsNovember 12

Speaking Engagements

Listening to the Future: A Good Read Available NowNovember 10

My new book, Listening to the Future, written with my collaborator Rob Salkowitz, is off the press and ready for the channel.

513Zk5XA39L._BO2,204,203,200_PIsitb-sticker-arrow-click,TopRight,35,-76_AA240_SH20_OU01_.jpg Come to Amazon.com and read a sample.

http://www.amazon.com/Listening-Future-Everybodys-Microsoft-Leadership/dp/0470413441/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226336364&sr=8-1

Barnes and Noble link here:

http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Listening-to-the-Future/Daniel-W-Rasmus/e/9780470413449/?itm=1