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ChangeWaves - Social Technologies

Observations on the Future from Social Technologies.

Mumbai, Security, and TransparencyDecember 4 2008

This summer my colleague Matt Sollenberger and I gave a talk at the Proteus conference at the Army War College on the relationship between transparency and geopolitics. One of our themes was that the technologies of transparency--mobile phones, satellite views, etc.--will tend to level the playing field between state and nonstate actors, giving the latter greatly expanded capabilities.

The terrorist attacks on Mumbai last week seem to provide an example. The attackers reportedly equipped themselves with GPS units, satellite images of the city, Blackberries, and mobile phones with switchable SIM cards to make themselves hard to track. They may have used live TV coverage to give themselves real-time tactical awareness of events.

Indian security forces reported that the terrorists were very familiar with the layout of their targets, which makes sense: the Taj Hotel offered virtual tours online, for anyone to study.

This shift in advantage is likely to accelerate, as nonstate actors get access to even more advanced technologies, such as UAVs (unmanned

New Research in the Global Lifestyles ProjectDecember 1 2008

New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

Multimedia Feature—The Rise of World Zero
Tens of millions of people regularly enter virtual worlds seeking everything from adventure to socializing to profit-making. World 0—Social Technologies’ term for the online virtual universe encompassing immersive environments such as Habbo Hotel, Second Life, and World of Warcraft—is a growing presence in everyday consumer life, and will have significant impacts on consumer lifestyles throughout World 1 and parts of World 2.

Country Profile—The Netherlands  
Demography, Business Conditions, and Consumer Life
A World 1 European country, the Netherlands is blessed with a prosperous, highly educated populace that embraces information technology. The population is expected to both grow and age  lightly during the forecast period. While the Netherlands is a mature market, business conditions are positive. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

US Generations

Thinking about the Future: Consult Unusual Sources, People, and Places -- Including Outliers, Complainers, and TroublemakersNovember 10 2008

From the second chapter of "Thinking about the Future," a book co-edited by Social Technologies' Andy Hines and futurist Peter Bishop, comes this entry: Consult unusual sources, people, and places -- including outliers, complainers, and troublemakers.

Here's Why: One important function of strategic foresight is the opening of the future. The inclusion of different perspectives is one way to assure this opening. Analysts should look for competent people inside and outside who bring a different way of thinking to the table.

Key steps: The selection of these participants should be done with care. Not every unusual or non-obvious individual qualifies. In the first place, they should be selected based on their authority in a particular domain. They should not bring "just another perspective," but a well-studied and well-articulated different view. The other participants should feel challenged by the ideas they bring in. This sense of challenge can result either from a deeper view of closely related subjects or from a subject that functions by analogy.

The world of business and decision-making favors the rational and bottom-line approach to gathering information. Prusak (1998) suggests that the higher up in the organ

A walk along the global fashion values scaleNovember 7 2008

To travel from Shanghai to Seoul and on to Tokyo, as I did recently, is to glimpse the sliding scale from modern to postmodern values as expressed through fashion.

Shanghai is obsessed with the new, with progress and change--often for the sake of change. It is a city thoroughly engaged with the early processes of modernization, and this is reflected in style choices which are often all over the map. Yet what leaps out at the casual observer is that the fashion mostly lacks confidence.

South Korea is further along the modernization scale by far than China - somewhere between modern and postmodern, between industrial and post-industrial in its development. The fashionable set in Seoul is more confident and established than in Shanghai, though its young people practice a form of safe nonconformity, and true self-expression is still fairly limited. In fact, some of the most daring dressers I saw were the monks wandering around town in their gray robes, bald heads, and wide-brimmed hats. Hoodies, chunky black glasses, and truckers hats were popular looks for the guys, sugg

After a Black President, New Signposts of the Future NeededNovember 5 2008

For the past 10 years, one of the key indicators Hollywood has used to indicate a story is taking place in the future (or at least not in our ‘universe’) is the African-American president.

Movies like Deep Impact and The Fifth Element featured black Presidents, and the television show ’24’ had not one but two black Presidents (and if spoilers are to be believed, a female President this season). So with the election of Barack Obama, what will be the indicators of fictional futures? Will we have to continue to make do with overly-lit, white interiors and odd looking road vehicles that emit an electric whine? I once more call on our readers: What will replace the black President as Hollywood’s shorthand for the future?

Image: ColinEdwards99, Flickr