Toluu

a neoconservative, mugged by Hobbes

The Helicopter’s investing acumen revealed (again)November 8

It has been abundantly obvious from day one that Ben Bernanke has no understanding of “liquidity” – whatsoever.

Only 2 months (?) after Bernanke helicoptered $122 billion to AIG, AIG has come cap in hand to Uncle Sam with a down face and a confession: “The money’s all gone.” AIG supposedly wants $200 billion in new money.

AIG in talks with Fed over new bail-out

By Francesco Guerrera in New York

Published: November 8 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 8 2008 02:00

AIG is asking the US government for a new bail-out less than two months after the Federal Reserve came to the rescue of the stricken insurer with an $85bn loan, according to people close to the situation.

AIG’s executives were last night locked in negotiations with the authorities over a plan that could involve a debt-for-equity swap and the government’s purchase of troubled mortgage-backed securities from the insurer.

People close to the talks said the discussions were on-going and might still collapse, but added that AIG was pressing for a decision before it reports third-quarter results on Monday.

AIG’s board is due to meet on Sunday to approve the results and discuss any new government plan, they added.

The moves come amid growing fears AIG might soon use up the $85bn cash infusion it received from the Fed i

CriminalOctober 28

The most criminally ingenious short squeeze in history, engineered by those cunning Germans at Porsche.

Fortunate for them that they’re a “car company.” If a hedge fund had tried to pull that in Germany, the managers, the PMs, the traders, the analysts, the back office IT, and everybody else in the same building would have already been packed off to the gas chambers by now.

Since hedge funds are “bad,” and Hank Paulson is “out to kill the bad HFs and regulate the rest,” David Einhorn can be allowed to squirm in his final moments, instead, as he chokes on a large short position.

All the prime broker intermediaries (GS, MS, Soc Gen, etc) will be repaid the difference in money printed at Treasury, so at the end of the day, what do they care, whether they were caught on the wrong side or not?

GS told us to post 500 percent margin today to keep our VW short position.

(We posted it.)

It was a small position, luckily.

      

Hello again.October 26

I’m back. I am sorry for the unannounced absence.

(Work has been insane.)

I doubt I will be able to maintain my previous tempo of posts, but I should be able to post from time to time, from now on.

      

“Where are they going to go?” asks one McCain adviserJune 28

Complacency triumphant:

The pollsters for John McCain’s campaign sent out a memo challenging the findings of a poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg. Hundreds of polls are released during a typical campaign without such a public objection. One finding in particular caught their attention. According to the L.A. Times, 22 percent of those surveyed identified themselves as Republicans, 39 percent as Democrats, and 27 percent as independents. The party identification in this poll, argued McCain’s pollsters, “is greatly out of line with what most other surveys are reporting.”

They’re right. And that fact probably helps explain why the L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll has Barack Obama beating John McCain by 15 points (in a field including Nader and Barr)–a much larger margin than most other respected polls. (The Gallup daily tracking poll, the McCain campaign eagerly points out, has McCain down just 3 points.)

McCain’s pollsters point to the findings of other surveys on party identification. That they would do this suggests just how damaged the Republican party brand is heading into the 2008 general election. Although the L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll shows a larger gap between Democrats and Republicans than all others–+17 for Democrats–the news for Republicans is uniformly bad.

Among the numbers the McCain ca

US regulators drive more speculation offshoreJune 17

Limits Put on Some Oil Contracts On ICE Amid Outcry Over Prices
By IAN TALLEY
June 17, 2008

WASHINGTON — The U.S. commodity futures regulator Tuesday said ICE
Futures Europe has agreed to make permanent position and
accountability limits for some of its U.S.-traded crude contracts,
subjecting itself to the same regulatory oversight as its New York
based counterpart.

Following intense scrutiny and censure by Congress over skyrocketing
oil prices, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission also said it
would require daily large trader reports, and similar position and
accountability limits from other foreign exchanges.

Many in Congress have criticized the agency for not doing enough to
rein in what they believe is rampant speculation contributing to
record energy prices and have pointed the finger in particular at
trading on IntercontinentalExchange’s ICE Futures Europe.

ICE and other foreign exchanges have been exempt from the many of the
rules that govern the New York Mercantile Exchange, which critics
charge has attracted a host of financial investors intent on pushing
prices higher. The new agreement, made in consultation with the U.K.’s
Financial Services Authority, will subject ICE to the same oversight
as Nymex.

“This combination of enhanced information data and additional market
controls will