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Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

Musing about technology, finance, venture capital, & the money culture with Paul Kedrosky

Readings: Easing, Bookstaber, Jobs, Shopping, etc.Today

A few quick items worth reading this morning:

• Rick Bookstaber's "non-testimony" on the regulation of swaps and derivatives (Bookstaber)
• List of recently cancelled economists job postings led by home equity risk modeler at BofA (JoE)
• The Fed's quantitative easing operations and the dollar (Morgan Stanley)
• How Japan finally got financial reform right (Morgan Stanley)
• China's November manufacturing contracts by record (Bloomberg)
• Mortgage Debt Becomes Unemployment Insurance (NBER)
• Thanksgiving Weekend Shopping Tops Expectations; Bargains Too Big To Ignore? (SBarron's)

Limits? We Don't Need to Steenking Limits!November 28

As most readers of this site will know, I'm fascinated by studies of human limits, so this one caught my eye today from the Journal of Experimental Biology:

Limits to running speed in dogs, horses and humans

Mark W. Denny

Hopkins Marine Station of Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA

Are there absolute limits to the speed at which animals can run? If so, how close are present-day individuals to these limits? I approach these questions by using three statistical models and data from competitive races to estimate maximum running speeds for greyhounds, thoroughbred horses and elite human athletes. In each case, an absolute speed limit is definable, and the current record approaches that predicted maximum. While all such extrapolations must be used cautiously, these data suggest that there are limits to the ability of either natural or artificial selection to produce ever faster dogs, horses and humans. Quantification of the limits to running speed may aid in formulating and testing models of locomotion.

Readings: Superstatistics, Hits/Misses, Bailout Progress, etc.November 27

Some links to a few items of interest:

• OECD Economic Outlook No. 84, November 2008 (OECD)
• Aggressive actions will avert both depression and deflation (Morgan Stanley)
• The Great Slump of 1930, by John Maynard Keynes (Project Gutenberg)
• Recent developments in superstatistics (arXiv)
• Hit rate is 51% for best long-only fund managers: Alpha comes from loss control on losers (PI)
• Dark Knight is most pirated movie of all time, and highest earning. Hmmmm. (TechDirt)

Buy a Toaster, Get a Free BankNovember 27

Cute image sent to me in mail by a reader: Buy a toaster get a free bank. Clip 'n' save.

I'm not sure the original source, so if someone wants to let me know, I'll credit them here.

Fed Voodoo Working? 30-Year-Fixed Falling, However BrieflyNovember 27

The Fed rate voodoo seems to currently be working, with the latest scheme to buy back GSE-insured paper turning into falling mortgage rates nationwide, however briefly. Even California 30-year rates are down markedly, with Wells Fargo now below 5.6%.

Admittedly, many people won't qualify for credit, or least fewer will than did two years ago, but it certainly beats the alternative of having a wave of reset-related defaults just as the economy falls off a cliff. Will people just default later as long rates rise in two years? Sure. But that's then and this is now.