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Electoral-vote.com

Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily


Thu, Sep. 04 Electoral Vote Predictor Obama 298 McCain 227 Ties 13September 4

Republican National Convention News

Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney gave warmup speeches last night in St. Paul, mostly avoiding any mention of John McCain. Their speeches could be seen as tryouts for the start of the 2012 campaign in the event Obama is elected President. Then came the first star of the night, Rudy Giuliani, who attacked Barack Obama bitterly, his voiced dripping with sarcasm the whole time he spoke. The audience loved it, cheering and giving him a standing ovation over and over. At one point he mocked Obama for changing his position on so many things, adding: "I hope for his sake, Joe Biden got that VP thing in writing." It was vintage Giuliani at its best.

Then came Sarah Palin's debut for a national audience. Her speech was written by former White House speechwriter Matthew Scully but she has been rehearsing it for several days with McCain aides coaching her. Normally, experienced politicians work with speech writers to polish the words, but with such an important speech from someone who has never given a prepared speech to a national audience before, a pro had to write this one. The speech was powerful and feisty, as expected, and she continued the theme of mocking Obama. Referring to his first job as a community organizer, she said that being a small town mayor is like being a community o

Wed, Sep. 03 Electoral Vote Predictor Obama 278 McCain 247 Ties 13September 3

Republican Convention News

With the danger from hurricane Gustav past, the Republican National Convention is back on track. Yesterday President Bush addressed the delegates by video from the White House. He praised John McCain as a courageous and forceful leader who always puts country ahead of party. Bush turned his frequent disagreements with McCain into a plus, saying: "He's not afraid to tell you when he disagrees. Believe me, I know." For example, McCain voted against the Bush tax cuts twice, calling them irresponsible. Immediately after Bush spoke, a video about Ronald Reagan was shown, praising him as another great and fearless leader.

The attack dog role fell to former Tennessee senator and short-lived candidate Fred Thompson. He began by talking about McCain's long imprisonment in North Vietnam as a POW and his status as a great American hero. Then he lit into Barack Obama, calling him the most liberal, most inexperienced nominee ever to run for President. Thompson was chosen to speak not because he he is a rising star in the Republican Party (he ran one of the worst campaigns in memory), but because he, like Lieberman, is a close personal friend of McCain's dating from the time they served together in the Senate. McCain puts up with campaign professionals like Steve Schmidt, who is de facto running his campaign, but the people he really trusts are his close personal and political friends (like Joe Lieberman and Thompson), who in private no doubt

Tue, Sep. 02 Electoral Vote Predictor Obama 278 McCain 247 Ties 13September 2

Is Palin the Best Qualified Potential Veep?

For the first half of this year, whenever John McCain was asked what qualities he would look for in a potential Vice President has always said he wanted the most qualified person in the country should the need arise for that person to become President. This is without a doubt a very strong answer. He was often praised for that answer and sometimes said he was willing to cross party lines if need be to find that person. Now that his choice is known, some people (although not McCain personally) have added it is executive experience that counts, something that neither Barack Obama nor Joe Biden has any of.

Taking executive experience as the benchmark, who might he have chosen? The obvious pool is sitting Republican governors, of whom their are 22, one of whom (Arnold Schwarzenegger) is ineligible because he is foreign born. An interesting question is then how does Sarah Palin rank in executive experience compared to the 21 eligible Republican governors. The answer is given in the table below. She ranks 17th. If executive experience were indeed the criterion McCain really valued most, then Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND) or Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) would have been the top choices. If he insisted that the job be given to a woman, then Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI) comes in next.

# Governor St Inaugurated Days   Senator St Inaugurated Days 1 John Hoeven ND Jan. 15,
Mon, Sep. 01 Electoral Vote Predictor Obama 278 McCain 247 Ties 13September 1

Republican National Convention Opening Delayed

The Republican party was to start meeting today in St. Paul, MN to nominate John McCain and Sarah Palin for President and Vice President, respectively. However, the opening night of the convention has been completely canceled due to hurricane Gustav. The decision to postpone the convention opening was made by John McCain who said yesterday: "I pledge that tomorrow night, and if necessary throughout our convention... to act as Americans, not Republicans." A very high-minded statement for which the senator is to be congratulated. As if partisanship was an odd thing to have at a political convention. If he thinks so, he must have missed Barack Obama's speech last week because Obama spent most of it attacking President Bush, the Republican Party, and McCain himself.

There are real two reasons the opening was postponed, both unspoken. First is this photo:

McCain-Bush

It was taken on McCain's 69th birthday, Aug. 29, 2005, the day hurricane Katrina wiped out New Orleans. Strangely, it is still on the White House Website (click it to go there). Having the Republicans whooping it up and yelling how inexperienced Obama is

Sun, Aug. 31 Electoral Vote Predictor Obama 278 McCain 247 Ties 13August 31

Hurrican Gustav Threatens New Orleans

Normally the top political story of the day is not a weather story, but today it is. Hurricane Gustav has now reached category 4 status and is expected to hit category 5 status with winds exceeding 155 mph before making landfall along the Gulf Coast. New Orleans appears to be directly in its gunsights, but hurricanes sometimes zig-zag so meteorologists are not entirely sure where it will hit. After the experience with hurricanes Katrina and Rita three years ago, New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin has ordered a mandatory evacuation of the entire city just in case. In the worst case scenario, the entire city could be under water, even areas that did not flood in 2005. Here is the story in the Times-Picayune, the local paper.

The human implications of this monster hurricane are immense--80 people have already died in the Carribean--but we will stick to the political implications here. First, most people living far from the Gulf Coast have already forgotten Katrina and Rita; this will remind them. The media will no doubt trot out all the photos of a happy President Bush in sunny Arizona ignoring the drowning city because he was too busy celebrating John McCain's 69th birthday. In case they forget, here is the